The concept of risk on and risk off in currencies typically refers to:
How investors perceive a currency in terms of risk appetite. "Risk on" currencies are seen as more attractive during times of high economic growth and market confidence, while "risk off" currencies are favored during periods of economic uncertainty or turmoil. It is important to note that these classifications can change over time due to various factors, and the reasons provided for each currency might not be exhaustive. Here are the top 15 currencies and their classification as "risk on" or "risk off" with three reasons for each:
Risk on currencies:
Australian Dollar (AUD)
Strong link to commodity prices, especially metals and minerals
High interest rates relative to other major currencies
Correlation with the Chinese economy, which is a significant driver of global growth
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Strong connection to agricultural commodity prices, particularly dairy products
High interest rates relative to other major currencies
Stable political and economic environment
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Correlation with oil and other commodity prices
Relatively high interest rates
Proximity and trade relations with the United States
South African Rand (ZAR)
High dependence on commodity exports, particularly gold and platinum
High interest rates relative to other major currencies
Susceptibility to domestic and regional political instability
Brazilian Real (BRL)
Exposure to commodity markets, especially agricultural products
High interest rates relative to other major currencies
Sensitivity to domestic political and economic events
Risk off currencies:
6. US Dollar (USD)
World's primary reserve currency and safe-haven status
Highly liquid currency market
Strong and diversified economy
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Traditional safe-haven currency due to Switzerland's economic and political stability
Strong banking sector and low inflation
Negative interest rates, which discourage speculative investments
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Safe-haven currency due to Japan's economic and political stability
Large current account surplus and substantial foreign exchange reserves
Low-interest rates, which discourage speculative investments
Euro (EUR)
Second most traded currency and widely used for international transactions
Large, diverse, and stable European economy
Low-interest rates, which discourage speculative investments
Mixed/Neutral Currencies:
10. British Pound (GBP)
Historically strong and stable currency
Significant financial sector and diversified economy
Exposure to Brexit-related uncertainties and political events
Chinese Yuan (CNY)
Growing importance as a global currency due to China's economic rise
Managed exchange rate and capital controls
Sensitivity to trade and geopolitical tensions
Indian Rupee (INR)
Large and growing economy
Exposure to commodity price fluctuations, particularly oil imports
Sensitivity to domestic economic and political events
Mexican Peso (MXN)
Exposure to commodity markets, particularly oil
Close trade ties with the United States
Sensitivity to domestic political and economic events
Russian Ruble (RUB)
High dependence on commodity exports, particularly oil and natural gas
Sensitivity to geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions
Unpredictable domestic political landscape
South Korean Won (KRW)
Export-oriented economy with strong ties to global trade
Sensitivity to geopolitical tensions involving North Korea
Exposure to fluctuations in the global technology sector